COP28 Climate Deal Raises Concerns Over Fossil Fuel Transition

At the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, nations reached a landmark agreement aiming to shift the global economy away from fossil fuels. However, critiques from delegations and environmental groups highlight potential loopholes that could allow the continuous flow of oil, gas, and coal. The deal’s inclusion of a call for the accelerated deployment of carbon capture technology, seen by some as unproven and costly, has sparked skepticism.

Carbon capture theoretically enables the capture and permanent underground storage of emissions from oil, gas, and coal sources, preventing them from entering the atmosphere. Critics argue that the technology, while expensive and untested at the required scale, might serve as a justification for ongoing fossil fuel extraction.

Some vulnerable nations express concern, feeling pressured to endorse technologies that could undermine their climate efforts. The deal also emphasises the acceleration of low-carbon hydrogen production, typically derived from electrolyzing water using clean energy sources like solar and wind, though this process remains costly and underutilized.

A contentious aspect of the agreement involves the recognition of “transitional fuels,” interpreted by US Special Climate Envoy John Kerry as including natural gas with captured emissions. This raises concerns among environmentalists, who fear it may encourage continued investment in oil and gas development. Kerry emphasises that such transitional fuels should play a limited or temporary role while phasing out fossil fuels.

Another area of contention arises from a clause urging parties to transition away from fossil fuels “in energy systems” rather than across the entire economy. Critics argue that this signals a continuation of fossil fuel reliance in energy-intensive sectors like plastics and petrochemical production.

The deal’s vague language and potential for continued fossil fuel use in specific sectors have sparked concerns about its alignment with the international target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While some see a limited role for major fossil fuels in challenging sectors, others worry that the agreement may not robustly drive the necessary transition away from fossil fuels.