August 14, 2022

Climate change: Fossil fuel output is expected to increase dramatically during the next decade

According to the UN, governments’ plans to extract fossil fuels until 2030 are incompatible with keeping global temperatures at safe levels.

As per the UNEP production gap analysis, countries will drill or mine more than twice as much as is required to keep the 1.5C target alive. Oil and gas recovery is expected to increase dramatically, while coal recovery is expected to decline slightly.

Since the initial report was issued in 2019, there has been little progress. With the COP26 climate summit just over a week away, the top emitters’ carbon-cutting aspirations are already receiving a lot of attention.

Despite a flurry of net-zero emission goals and increased pledges from many countries, some of the world’s largest oil, gas, and coal producers have yet to lay out plans for the rapid reductions in fossil fuels that scientists believe will be necessary in the coming years to keep temperatures within safe limits.

Researchers from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) cautioned earlier this year about the hazards of permitting temperatures to climb by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius this century. To stay within this limit, carbon emissions must be reduced by 45 percent by 2030 compared to 2010. However, the UN reports that instead of reducing carbon emissions, many of the world’s largest emitters plan to considerably boost fossil fuel production.

Countries plan to produce approximately 110 percent more fossil fuel by the end of the century than is compatible with a 1.5°C temperature rise, according to the production gap study. The plans are roughly 45 percent more ambitious than what is needed to keep temperature rises below 2 degrees Celsius.

Governments have spent significantly more of their recovery funds on fossil fuel operations after the COVID epidemic. There are some benefits in terms of finance.

Oil, coal, and gas funding from international banks, as well as some of the world’s wealthier nations, has declined significantly in recent years.